What Happened?
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is on the horizon, with Vice President Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party and former President Donald Trump from the Republican Party making their final sprints. As the electoral battle heats up, Bitcoin has started to experience significant price fluctuations.
Wall Street investment firm Bernstein analysts predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000.
Market analyst Miles Deutscher believes that regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin could reach $100,000, but if Harris is elected, it could lead to an “immediate sell-off” in the Bitcoin market.
How will the cryptocurrency market evolve as the 2024 U.S. elections count down?
In the final hours before Election Day, Harris and Trump are making their last sprints in swing states, holding rallies and events, marking the end of months of campaigning.
Bitcoin’s price also saw dramatic fluctuations between October 29 and November 3, falling by 8%, and at one point over the weekend, dropping to $67,446. Though, looking at the longer timeline, most investors believe the market structure remains bullish, traders expect volatility to increase as the U.S. presidential election approaches.
As of the time this article was written, the price of Bitcoin is $68,000, having fallen by 1.5% in the past 24 hours.
The most discussed topic in the community is the “post-election development” of the crypto market.
Wall Street investment firm Bernstein analysts predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000.
This optimistic forecast is mainly because Trump has continuously emphasized his support for cryptocurrency in his campaign activities, including his proposal to make the U.S. the “global capital of crypto,” appointing a crypto-friendly SEC to ease regulatory pressures, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, and making the U.S. a center for Bitcoin mining.
From the above policies, it is evident that Trump leans towards a crypto-friendly environment, and his campaign team even accepts cryptocurrency donations.
Market analyst Miles Deutscher stated that regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin could reach $100,000, but the path and timing will vary depending on the election outcome.
He believes that if Harris wins the U.S. election, the market is likely to fear that the Harris administration will maintain or even strengthen the regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrencies, leading to an “immediate sell-off” in the Bitcoin market.
How does the decentralized prediction market view this?
Furthermore, the recent decline in Bitcoin prices has triggered market concerns about increased volatility before the election. Most traders believe that Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate before the election, reflecting the market’s concern about the potential significant impact of Trump or Harris’s policies on the crypto market.
In addition to analysts’ optimism about the positive impact of Trump’s victory on the Bitcoin market, on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the trading volume supporting Trump has reached millions of dollars.
According to statistics, the five major “Bitcoin whales” hold more than 50% of the total volume of “Yes” votes for Trump’s victory. This means that if Trump indeed wins, these whales could gain over $81 million in potential profits.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price usually rises in the months following a presidential election, and with the fourth “Bitcoin halving” event completed in April this year, some speculate that its price may reach a new historical high.
Regardless, the election outcome not only concerns the future policy direction of the U.S. but will also have a profound impact on the trend of the crypto market, with the global market eagerly awaiting the post-election Bitcoin market.
References:
cointelegraph