What Happened?
Economist Timothy Peterson predicts that the bottom price for Bitcoin is $69,000, believing there is a high probability it will not fall below this low point again. This provides investors with an important price reference, aiding in the assessment of Bitcoin’s potential risks.
Despite market volatility in the short term, Peterson remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential, forecasting that its price could reach $1.5 million by 2035, highlighting analysts’ confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
The cost basis for Bitcoin lies between $84,000 and $85,000, which is crucial for assessing market sentiment and potential reversals. For investors, these price points serve as important indicators to monitor.
Will Bitcoin Drop Again?
Recently, Bitcoin’s price has experienced fluctuations, dipping to its lowest point since November last year, raising concerns about its future direction. However, renowned internet economist Timothy Peterson maintains an optimistic outlook, believing there is a 75% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new high within the next nine months.
In early March, Peterson tweeted on platform X that the bottom price for Bitcoin is approximately $69,000, and the current price of Bitcoin is already quite close to this range. Therefore, he believes there is a 95% chance that Bitcoin will not fall below this low point again and that a positive rebound is highly likely in the future.
Lowest Price Forward doesn’t tell you where Bitcoin will be. It tells you where Bitcoin won’t be.
There is a 95% chance it won’t fall below $69k.
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 4, 2025
This prediction has excited many users online. The attention comes from Peterson’s past predictions, including those made during the 2020 bull market, which have proven to be accurate.
The “Lowest Price Forward” indicator used by Peterson tracks Bitcoin’s long-term price trends; while it cannot predict where Bitcoin’s price will go, it can forecast how low it “won’t” drop.
Although Bitcoin’s price recently dipped to $78,000, Peterson believes this situation will not persist. He pointed out that market corrections typically occur after significant price declines, where investors panic or despair, leading to mass asset sell-offs, followed by a cooling period of two to three months. During this time, prices stabilize before rising again.
Bitcoin
In June 2020, Peterson predicted that Bitcoin would never return to a four-digit price, and indeed it has not returned to such a price level. When Bitcoin was around $92,000 this year, Peterson set a long-term target price of $1.5 million by 2035. It is evident that despite market declines, Peterson remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
While some market participants have been cautious amid recent volatility, Peterson’s analysis shows a more optimistic outlook. His research indicates that after this market adjustment period, Bitcoin is likely to resume its upward trend. Furthermore, the “Bitcoin Price Trend” indicator has successfully predicted long-term trends, adding credibility to his forecasts.
Geopolitical decisions and macroeconomic factors continue to impact Bitcoin’s price, with investor sentiment fluctuating alongside global events. Additionally, Peterson emphasized in a post on X on March 25 that Bitcoin is currently near the lower bound of its historical range, with a high probability of a positive rebound in the future.
He stated, “In the short term, there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will rise by over 50%.”
Amazingly Bitcoin is tracking right along that lower bound. History repeats.
The way to interpret this chart is there is a 75% chance that Bitcoin will go higher from here, since it’s at the bottom 25% threshold. There is a 50% chance it will gain 50%+ in the short term.
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 24, 2025
Peterson’s statements are based on earlier research which found that the majority of Bitcoin’s bullish performance typically occurs in April and October. Looking back over the past decade, the average increases for these two months have been 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively.
An anonymous analyst from cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant, known as Crazzyblockk, pointed out that the cost basis for most active addresses lies between $84,000 and $85,000, and a drop below this cost basis could trigger sell-offs. Therefore, the range of $84,000 to $85,000 currently represents a key area influencing Bitcoin’s price direction.
The analyst added, “These on-chain cost basis levels represent decision areas for market sentiment shifts. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these regions to assess trend strength and potential reversals.”
Reference: cointelegraph, coinmarketcap