What happened?
According to the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 has increased from 77% to 86%.
From a market perspective, it is believed that after Trump takes office, he will become a driving force for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs.
If Solana ETF wants to successfully list, it must adopt a structure similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, known as a “Grantor Trust,” and avoid being considered a security, otherwise it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Polymarket predicts that the probability of Solana ETF being listed in the United States is as high as 86%.
According to data released by the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket on New Year’s Day, the preliminary probability of Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 is 77%. However, Matthew Sigel, the research director of asset management company VanEck, responded that this probability is “underestimated.”
Underpriced imo— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 2, 2025
As of the time of writing, the predicted probability on January 3rd has indeed reached 86%. The analysis by the foreign media “Cointelegraph” indicates that Sigel’s optimism reflects the industry’s expectations for more cryptocurrency ETFs to be listed in the United States, especially after Donald Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, was elected as the President of the United States.
Trump’s presidency is expected to boost Solana ETF’s listing.
The listing of Solana ETF has attracted industry attention. In June of last year, VanEck and other competitors such as 21Shares submitted relevant applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but their applications were questioned by the SEC in August, pointing out that Solana may be considered a security rather than a commodity.
If cryptocurrencies are considered securities, the establishment and listing of ETFs will become more complicated because they will need to comply with strict regulations under U.S. securities laws. The institutions issuing ETFs must complete more compliance processes, such as submitting detailed documents, registration applications, and ensuring that transactions with investors comply with securities law requirements.
This controversy has affected the ETF launch plans of many asset management institutions. However, from a market perspective, it is believed that Trump’s victory will be a driving force for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs. As early as November 2024, Sigel predicted that the probability of Solana ETF being approved in the United States in 2025 is “extremely high.”
“Cointelegraph” pointed out that the currently listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States use a special structure called “Grantor Trust,” which is suitable for funds that simply hold a single commodity. If Solana ETF wants to successfully list, it must adopt a similar structure and avoid being considered a security, otherwise it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Whether Solana ETF can successfully list, the year 2025 when Trump officially assumes the presidency of the United States will be a key point.
Source: Cointelegraph, Coinpedia