Is the Bull Market Script Starting?
The light is beginning to shine at the end of the tunnel. After six months of turbulence, the cryptocurrency market is once again showing signs of vitality. Solana and Base have both performed well, and even more excitingly, we finally have something new, AI Meme.
Some predict that the price of Bitcoin may surpass $100,000 in the coming months. The bullish market sentiment is driven by the following factors:
The upcoming US presidential election in two weeks. Trump’s reelection would be a huge victory for cryptocurrencies.
On-chain indicators are bullish. Base and Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL), trading volume, and active addresses have been consistently increasing.
Stripe’s acquisition of stablecoin payment platform Bridge with a significant amount of capital. This acquisition’s long-term benefits for cryptocurrencies have been underestimated.
The emergence of AI x Meme as a new field. It may be the “NFT” of this wave of retail trading.
Sentiment is improving, and the nostalgic atmosphere is returning.
Now is the time to overcome the trauma of the bear market. So many exciting things are happening, and I want to be at the forefront of the trend.
In the market, protocols and narratives are mixed, and it’s not easy to distinguish between signals and noise. Here are the things I will be paying attention to in the coming months.
1. AI Agent x Memecoin: The Cult Returns
Memecoins have always been an important part of the cryptocurrency market.
Their working principle is simple, aiming to gain promotion through viral spread. Since memes are “static,” their popularity relies on the community.
But what if memes can upgrade and evolve? What if memes can self-promote? This is where AI agents come in.
Last week, GOAT (Goatseus Maximus) became the preferred AI agent speculation, with its market value skyrocketing from 0 to $800 million within a week.
What is GOAT? Truth Terminal is an autonomous chatbot that can independently manage its own Twitter account and generate content. It releases gibberish in terms of technological philosophy, but it has a particular interest in “GOATSE OF GNOSIS,” a pseudo-religion based on an ancient internet meme.
GOAT was created by an anonymous person who airdropped some tokens to the creator of Truth Terminal.
The next scene is Truth Terminal vigorously promoting GOAT on Twitter. Will AI launch its “own” memecoin? It has good “memecoin fundamentals”: high liquidity and fair distribution, with no team risk like VC or memecoin “conspiracy groups.”
The momentum of AI memes can continue for the following reasons:
Truth Terminal has over 100,000 followers and is still growing. Each of its tweets has a tremendous impact. It tweets every hour, making it an unstoppable KOL.
Currently, no AI meme has been listed on major CEXs. GOAT’s daily trading volume is approximately $374 million, undoubtedly catching the attention of tier-one CEXs. (Translator’s Note: GOAT contract trading is already available on Binance.)
AI is constantly evolving, and it will continue to learn and grow.
AI memes exist at the intersection of Crypto x AI x Religion: a new “cult.”
We have only scratched the surface of this new field. How can you navigate it? The easiest way might be to go long on the leading GOAT. Take a step back, and there are other potential explorers emerging, such as Fartcoin and Gnon.
It is worth noting that there will be a lot of scams trying to take advantage of this wave. Their token distribution is nowhere near as good as GOAT’s, and I can guarantee that many of these “AI agents” are actually humans playing AI role-playing games.
NFT gained attention from retail traders as early as 2021. AI agents x Meme have the same potential, and GOAT reaching a market cap of $1 billion is not difficult.
Finally, remember that these are Memecoins. The faster they rise, the faster they fall. So, make sure your profits are safe.
2. Solana: Riding the Wave of Memecoin and AI
“During the gold rush, it’s a good time to be in the pick and shovel business, not the gold miners themselves.”
I love Ethereum, but ignoring Solana’s progress and adoption would be foolish.
Solana is currently riding a wave driven by Memecoins and AI tokens. With the surging prices and trading volumes of Memecoins, Solana is once again in the spotlight.
Solana is seizing the opportunity with Memecoins and AI tokens:
Well-known Memecoins like SLOP, GNON, Shegen, and FART are gaining attention, and GOAT is leading the AI token market.
As of the fourth quarter of 2024, Solana is creating an average of 96,010 tokens per day, with Pump.fun creating approximately 9,000 tokens per day, accounting for about 9.3% of the total.
In addition to Memecoins, Solana is also home to innovative DeFi protocols.
I want to highlight three protocols:
Jupiter. They are primarily known for exchanges and perpetual contracts. But they recently launched ApePro, a new trading platform designed specifically for Memecoins.
Kamino Finance. Kamino Lend, launched just a year ago, currently holds nearly 70% of the market share on Solana, with a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $1.65 billion.
Pump.fun. Solana’s Memecoin factory, which may have a future airdrop. Their new internal trading tool is called Pump Advanced. They have also launched a video tokenization platform that allows users to tokenize videos, making them tradable assets on the platform.
With Solana’s continuous innovation and attraction of different projects, it has become a strong competitor to Ethereum. The combination of Memecoins and AI tokens not only diversifies its products but also strengthens community participation, making Solana a choice for new retail traders.
3. AI Tokens
While AI Meme is currently capturing everyone’s attention, we should not overlook Crypto AI tokens.
Bittensor (TAO) is the leader in this field.
Bittensor is the infrastructure of the Crypto AI field, focusing on AI applications:
Opentensor FDN recently launched an Ethereum-compatible layer, connecting to the $300 billion Ethereum ecosystem.
Real-world adoption: Three major DeFi protocols have already been built on Bittensor’s machine learning infrastructure.
Multiple sources of income: Transaction fees, staking, AI services, aiming for over $10 million per quarter.
Institutional support: Two major cryptocurrency VCs increased their positions in September.
Obtaining exposure to AI can be an interesting strategy, such as holding GOAT (high risk with explosive potential) and TAO (infrastructure). Both are worth paying attention to and have support from mature communities.
AI agents are now making breakthroughs. One protocol I am closely watching is Virtuals Protocol, described by some as the AI agent version of Pump.fun.
Virtuals Protocol allows you to collectively own AI agents in the gaming and entertainment space with others. Imagine co-owning entertainment robots deployed on platforms like TikTok, Roblox, and others. How fun!
4. Fantom’s Rebirth: Hello, Sonic
Fantom is one of the hottest blockchains in 2021. At its peak, it had a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $8 billion.
Fantom is now undergoing a transformation and rebranding itself as Sonic Chain, focusing on speed and scalability. With Andre Cronje’s return, expectations for Fantom are high.
What new features does Sonic have? Sonic Chain promises faster transaction speeds, up to 10,000 TPS. It’s not enough yet, but it’s enough to make it a contender in the high-performance blockchain competition. Improved token economics make it one of the most anticipated updates in the fourth quarter.
Sonic’s upcoming catalysts include:
With Pendle’s support, Sonic will have liquidity staking capabilities.
Curve, KyberSwap, Snapshot, and other major DeFi protocols are launching on Sonic.
Sonic’s new fee mechanism allows developers to earn up to 90% of fees.
Projects like Sonic & Sodas, Sonic Boom, and Sonic University are aimed at attracting developers.
In the last quarter, Sonic Arcade’s TVL grew by 20%.
Finally, let’s talk about money. Sonic has confirmed an airdrop worth approximately $132 million, and on-chain activities are growing.
Andre’s involvement, large-scale airdrops, upcoming DeFi tools, and changes in token economics may drive Sonic’s growth in the fourth quarter.
Every day I wake up, I see new Ethereum Layer 2 or application chains being launched. But Solana’s leading position and the rise of Aptos/Sui indicate that there is still room for development in L1 competition chains.
For L1 competition chains, you can consider Solana as the Alpha version and Sonic as the Beta version.
Some concerns I have:
Andre is innovative, but he has also played the “disappearance” game before. He has brought too much attention to Sonic, so there is a significant risk associated with key figures.
There haven’t been many innovative DApps launched on Fantom in the past few years. Their most popular DApps are still Beethoven X and SpookySwap.
Sonic will compete with L2 and other L1 competition chains.
Can Sonic maintain its momentum after the airdrop is completed?
Currently, the Sonic ecosystem is already crowded, but it is doing interesting things that deserve your attention.
5. Aerodrome: Base’s Secret Weapon
Base’s rise is evident, and by TVL, it is the largest L2 recognized by Ethereum.
Why is that? Aerodrome. Aerodrome’s TVL is now over $1.36 billion, making it a top participant in Base’s DeFi ecosystem.
This is mainly due to its two liquidity pools.
Aerodrome’s dominance in the Base ecosystem is reflected in the following:
Current TVL: $1.36 billion (56% of Base’s total TVL)
30-day growth: 56%, higher than the market average of 15%
Market share: 80% of all DEX trading volume on Base
Daily trading volume: over $150 million
As Base matures, the importance of Aerodrome as its default DEX will continue to increase, making it a core participant in the Base ecosystem.
In the past 20 days, a comparison between Base and other L2s:
Average daily transactions:
Base: 5.6 million
Arbitrum: 2.1 million
Optimism: 850,000
Active addresses:
Base: 1.5 million monthly active users
Arbitrum: 780,000 monthly active users
Optimism: 690,000 monthly active users
TVL growth:
Base: $2.5 billion
Arbitrum: $2.4 billion
Optimism: $681 million
It can be seen that Base is currently experiencing strong growth, so what will be the next catalyst?
Integration of Real-World Assets (RWA): Platforms like Centrifuge can bring real-world assets into Base, attracting more liquidity and traditional financial participants to join its ecosystem.
GameFi and NFT: Base’s scalability makes it a perfect choice for new gaming platforms or NFT markets, leveraging these growing crypto narratives.
Developer incentives: Base, supported by Coinbase, may promote growth through developer incentives such as hackathons and funding programs, attracting more talent to join the ecosystem.
Aerodrome has created a powerful DeFi ecosystem on Base, attracting both retail and institutional participants. Alongside top protocols like Uniswap, Aave, Balancer, Sushiswap, Curve, and Stargate, Base has the potential to become a strong competitor in the L2 race.
6. DeFi 1.0: Don’t Underestimate Established Companies
Remember when Aave and Uniswap dominated DeFi? It was a time of innovation and endless possibilities. Now, they are ambitiously making a comeback.
Aave plans to push its native stablecoin, GHO, into new ecosystems like Base and Avalanche.
By early 2024, GHO had a market cap of $35 million, growing 350% over the past ten months, currently at $160.1 million.
GHO’s growth indicators for Aave:
Revenue of $50 million so far this year, the highest among all lending protocols.
Circulating supply of GHO reaching $160 million.
ETH TVL continues to grow, currently at 5.1 million ETH (over $11 billion), approaching the previous all-time high.
Grayscale announced the launch of Aave Trust.
GHO is currently competing with top 15 stablecoins, with increased interest from institutional investors.
As for Uniswap, it recently announced the launch of its own blockchain, Unichain.
We have previously delved into the updates to the Uniswap v4 ecosystem and the reception of Unichain’s launch. Here are the updated strategic moves for Uniswap:
After the launch of Unichain, massive liquidity migration is expected to occur.
One of Unichain’s main goals is to help users reduce gas costs by approximately 95%.
The launch of Unichain may introduce new staking mechanisms.
The introduction of revenue-sharing models may boost the UNI token price.
The number of wallets holding UNI tokens exceeds 400,000.
GHO from Aave and Unichain from Uniswap have the potential to revitalize DeFi 1.0 and bring these giants back into the spotlight. These moves may redefine the dynamics of stablecoins and reshape the DEX landscape.
Riding the Wave
These past few years have been challenging in the cryptocurrency market. Countless Ponzi schemes and the collapse of Terra and FTX have left us in a prolonged bear market. The entire industry has been focused on building more Ethereum Layer 2 solutions. Now, I can feel the tide shifting.
We also need to change with it: stop the nonsense, overcome the trauma of the bear market, and stand tall at the forefront.
