This Year’s End Launch Will Enable Mars Missions
This year’s end launch version has been fully equipped to execute Mars missions. Subsequent versions will further enhance performance. Just like we have done with Falcon 9 in the past, we will continuously extend the rocket and improve its payload capacity. This is our development path, simple and clear.
But I want to emphasize that the rocket set to launch at the end of this year is already sufficient to support humanity’s goal of multi-planetary existence. What we need to do next is to continue improving efficiency, enhancing capabilities, reducing costs per ton, and lowering expenses for each individual traveling to Mars.
As I said before—our goal is to make it possible for anyone who wants to settle on Mars and participate in building a new civilization to do so.
Think about how cool that would be? Even if you don’t want to go, perhaps you have a son, daughter, or friend who is willing to go. I believe this will be one of the greatest adventures humanity can participate in—going to another planet and building a new civilization by hand.
Yes, ultimately our Starship will be equipped with 42 engines—this is almost destined, just as the great prophet Douglas Adams predicted in his book “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”: the ultimate answer to life is 42.
So, the Starship will ultimately have 42 engines; this is the arrangement of the universe (laughs).
Now, let’s talk about payload capacity. The most astonishing thing is that, under fully reusable conditions, the Starship will have a payload capacity of 200 tons to low Earth orbit. What does this mean? This is equivalent to twice the payload capacity of the Saturn V lunar rocket. The Saturn V was a single-use rocket, while the Starship is fully reusable.
If the Starship were single-use, its low Earth orbit payload could even reach 400 tons.
So what I’m saying is: this is a very large rocket. But to achieve “human multi-planetary existence,” we must have such a large rocket. And in the process of achieving Mars colonization, we can also do many cool things, such as establishing a base on the Moon—Lunar Base Alpha.
Building Lunar Base Alpha
There was a TV show called “Lunar Base Alpha” a long time ago. Although some of the physics settings in the show are not very reliable—like the lunar base seemingly drifting away from Earth’s orbit (laughs)—establishing a base on the Moon should be the next step after the Apollo lunar program.
Imagine if we could establish a giant scientific station on the Moon and conduct research on the nature of the universe; that would be very cool.
So when can we go to Mars?
The Mars launch window opens every two years, specifically every 26 months. The next Mars window will be at the end of next year, around 18 months from now, likely in November or December.
We will strive to seize this opportunity. If luck is on our side, I think we currently have a 50-50 chance of achieving our goal.
The key to accomplishing the Mars mission lies in whether we can complete the orbital propellant refueling technology in time. If we can complete this technology before the window opens, we will launch the first unmanned Starship to Mars at the end of next year.
Next, you will see a demonstration diagram illustrating how the flight from Earth (blue) to Mars (red) is achieved.
Flight Trajectory to Mars
In reality, the distance traveled from Earth to Mars is nearly a thousand times that to the Moon.
You cannot “fly straight” to Mars; you must transfer along an elliptical orbit—Earth is located at one focus of this ellipse, and Mars is at the other end of the orbit. You also need to accurately calculate the spacecraft’s position and timing on the orbit to ensure it intersects with Mars’ orbit.
This is known as the Hohmann Transfer, which is the standard method for traveling from Earth to Mars.
If you have a Starlink Wi-Fi router, you can see the marking on the diagram above; it illustrates this orbital transfer. The satellite network service provided by Starlink is one of the projects helping fund humanity’s journey to Mars.
So I want to especially thank everyone using Starlink—you are helping ensure the future of human civilization, helping humanity become a multi-planetary civilization, and helping lead humanity into the “era of space travel.” Thank you.
This is a preliminary blueprint: we hope to significantly increase the frequency of flights and the number of spacecraft to Mars with each opening of the Mars launch window (approximately every two years).
Aiming for 1000 to 2000 Starships
Ultimately, our goal is to launch 1,000 to 2,000 Starships to Mars each time the Mars window opens. Of course, this is just an order-of-magnitude estimate, but in my judgment, to establish a self-sustaining civilization on Mars, we need to send about 1 million tons of supplies to the Martian surface.
Only when Mars possesses such basic capabilities can we truly reach the “civilization safety point”—meaning that even if Earth can no longer provide supplies, the Martian civilization can survive and develop independently.
For this, you cannot lack anything, even small but critical elements like vitamin C are essential. Mars must have everything it needs to achieve true growth.
I estimate that about 1 million tons will be needed, maybe even 10 million tons; I hope it won’t be 100 million tons, as that would be too much. But in any case, we will do everything we can to reach this goal as soon as possible and ensure the future of human civilization.
We are currently evaluating multiple candidate locations for Mars bases, with the Arcadia region being one of the top choices. There are many “land” resources on Mars, but after considering various factors, the selection range becomes quite small:
For example, it cannot be too close to the poles (as the environment is too extreme), it needs to be near ice caps to access water sources, and the terrain cannot be too rugged for safe rocket landings.
Choosing Arcadia
After considering these factors, Arcadia is one of the more ideal locations. By the way, my daughter’s name is also Arcadia.
In the initial phase, we will send the first batch of Starships to Mars to collect critical data. These spacecraft will carry Optimus humanoid robots, which will arrive first to explore the surrounding environment and prepare for human arrival.
If we can indeed launch the Starship at the end of next year and successfully reach Mars, it will be a breathtaking sight. According to the orbital cycle, that spacecraft will arrive at Mars in 2027.
Imagine the sight of Optimus humanoid robots walking on the surface of Mars; that will be a transformative moment.
Sending Humans to Mars
Then, during the next Mars window two years later, we will attempt to send humans to Mars, provided that the previous unmanned missions successfully land. If all goes well, we will have humans step onto Mars during the next launch and truly begin constructing infrastructure on Mars.
Of course, to be more cautious, we may also conduct another Optimus robot landing mission, using the third launch for the crewed mission. It will depend on the actual outcomes of the first two missions.
Do you remember that famous photo?—Workers sitting on a steel beam above the Empire State Building eating lunch. We hope to capture a similar classic image on Mars. For communication on Mars, we will use a version of the Starlink system to provide network services.
Even at the speed of light, the delay from Earth to Mars is evident—under ideal circumstances, it’s about 3.5 minutes, while in the worst case, when Mars is on the opposite side of the Sun, the delay can reach 22 minutes or more.
Addressing Communication Challenges
So, conducting high-speed communication between Mars and Earth is indeed a challenge, but Starlink has the capability to solve this problem.
Next, the first group of humans will lay the groundwork on Mars, establishing a long-term stationed outpost. As I mentioned earlier, our goal is to enable Mars to achieve self-sustainability as soon as possible.
This is a rough concept of our first city on Mars.
Designing the First Martian City
I speculate that we will build the launch pad a bit farther away from the landing area to prevent accidents. On Mars, we will heavily rely on solar energy. During the early stages on Mars, as it has not yet been “terraformed,” humans cannot walk freely on the surface and must wear “Mars suits” and live in enclosed structures similar to glass domes.
However, all of this is achievable. Ultimately, we hope to transform Mars into a habitable planet.
Our long-term goal is to transport over one million tons of supplies to Mars with each Mars transfer window (about every two years). Only when we reach this level can we truly begin building a “serious Martian civilization”—transporting “millions of tons” of supplies during each window is our ultimate standard.
By that time, we will need a large number of spaceports. Since flights cannot occur continuously and can only be concentrated during launch windows, we will have thousands, even up to two thousand Starships gathered in Earth’s orbit, waiting to launch simultaneously.
A Spectacle of Space Travel
Imagine—like in “Battlestar Galactica,” thousands of spacecraft gathering in orbit, simultaneously heading to Mars; that would be one of the most spectacular scenes in human history.
Of course, by then, we will also need a large number of Martian landing pads and launch sites. If thousands of Starships arrive, you will need at least hundreds of landing spots or to efficiently clear the landing area quickly after landing.
This problem we will solve later (laughs). In short, establishing humanity’s first extraterrestrial city on Mars will be an incredible achievement. This is not just a new world; it is also an opportunity—Martian residents can rethink the model of human civilization:
What kind of government do you want?
What new rules do you wish to establish?
On Mars, humanity has the freedom to rewrite the structure of civilization.
This is a decision for the “Martians.”
So, alright—let’s work together to make this happen.
Thank you all!
This article is a collaborative reprint from: Deep Tide