Under Trump’s Tariff Policy, Global Market Sensitivity to Geopolitical and Trade Risks Increases
Under Trump’s tariff policy, the global market’s sensitivity to geopolitical and trade risks has rapidly increased, leading to structural changes in the flow of funds towards safe-haven assets. Peng Yunxian, founder of the Taiwanese cryptocurrency exchange HOYA BIT, pointed out that Bitcoin’s price movement is gradually decoupling from that of the US dollar and US stocks, while its correlation with gold prices has significantly strengthened, displaying a new trend of a “dual-gold hedging model.” The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has decreased from 0.88 at the end of 2024 to a recent 0.77, with its correlation to the Nasdaq index dropping from 0.91 to 0.83. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s negative correlation with gold has rapidly narrowed from -0.62 at the beginning of the month to -0.31. These changes indicate that Bitcoin is no longer just a highly volatile risk asset, but rather a strategic allocation tool being reassessed by institutional funds in the context of rising risk-averse sentiment.
As of April 25, 2025, the price of Bitcoin reached $93,420, rising over 9% in the past week, and rebounding more than 23% from its low in early April; during the same period, gold has accumulated a 26% increase, setting 28 new historical highs. Peng Yunxian emphasized that this is not merely an escape from dollar assets, but more accurately, a reshaping of the “definition of future safe-haven assets.” Bitcoin is gradually shedding its past speculative label and entering a sequence of assets with long-term strategic positions.
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Historical Data: The Lagging Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold
Historical data shows that the price trends of Bitcoin and gold have a significant lagging correlation. According to market statistics from Cointelegraph, when gold prices hit historical highs, Bitcoin prices often follow suit within approximately 100 to 150 days. For instance, in 2017, gold prices rose by about 30%, after which Bitcoin quickly surged to a high of $19,120; following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, after gold reached a historical high of $2,075 per ounce, Bitcoin rapidly climbed from $9,000 to over $60,000 within months, marking an increase of 500%. Peng Yunxian stated that this price linkage model once again demonstrates the profound market correlation between the two, and investors should closely observe how this historical pattern influences future market trends. If this trend continues, Bitcoin prices may reach new record levels between the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
Why is Bitcoin Decoupling from US Stocks and the Dollar? HOYA BIT Founder Reveals
Peng Yunxian, founder of the Taiwanese cryptocurrency exchange HOYA BIT, analyzed the reasons for the recent close correlation between Bitcoin and gold prices, closely related to the unstable factors in the current global economic environment. Investors are gradually fatigued by tariff policies and are more concerned about overall economic trends, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, US national debt, GDP, and unemployment rate data. Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it the only verifiable currency in the world with high portability and divisibility. This scarcity makes Bitcoin a strong evidence against currency depreciation, even in the face of severe inflation. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, also pointed out that the current US economic environment is facing a significant “Minsky Moment,” where the $35 trillion national debt and economic deficit states are unsustainable, leading to a gradual erosion of market confidence in the dollar and traditional financial markets, prompting a search for more robust safe-haven assets. Novogratz particularly mentioned that the uncertainty of Trump’s government policies and the high-interest-rate environment are exacerbating investors’ concerns about inflation and economic turmoil, further driving the demand for gold and Bitcoin as two major safe-haven assets.
HOYA BIT Exchange Suggests: Cautiously Observe Market Dynamics and Strategically Position Bitcoin for the Long Term
Recently, Bitcoin’s price has strongly surpassed $90,000, and market rumors suggest a momentum of “capital fleeing the dollar.” However, Peng Yunxian believes that this market wave is actually driven by three deeper factors. Firstly, the US spot Bitcoin ETF continues to attract institutional fund inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT achieving record daily trading volumes, indicating that traditional financial capital has included Bitcoin in its core investment portfolio. Secondly, on-chain chips are gradually concentrating among long-term holders, with a significant decrease in short-term turnover rates, reflecting market confidence in mid to long-term prices. Thirdly, the market volatility triggered by Trump’s tariff policy, where Trump indicated the possibility of lowering tariffs on China, is boosting investor confidence and subsequently directing assets into the cryptocurrency market.
In the face of a constantly turbulent investment market, Peng Yunxian recommends that investors closely monitor the Bitcoin strategic reserve report to be released by the US in early May 2025. This report will officially include approximately 200,000 Bitcoins into the national strategic reserves for the first time, further strengthening the market’s recognition of Bitcoin as a sovereign-level safe-haven asset. As for investors under the current global economic turmoil, they should maintain a rational investment attitude and conduct cautious and diversified asset allocation to cope with potential future market fluctuations. Additionally, Peng Yunxian also emphasized that Bitcoin, with its transparency, fixed supply, rapid transfer, and global circulation characteristics, has highlighted its long-term investment value, especially in an environment of rising inflation pressures and economic uncertainties, making Bitcoin an important option in asset allocation that is worth holding long-term.
Further Reading: HOYA BIT Exchange Digital Weekly https://tw.hoyabit.com/news2025