What Happened?
Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, boldly predicts that Bitcoin will reach $13 million within 20 years and, due to its decentralized nature, will ultimately replace traditional currencies as the dominant global currency. However, experts are divided on this vision of “hyperbitcoinization,” with many considering it more of an ideological “fantasy” than a pragmatic forecast, citing Bitcoin’s lack of productivity, high volatility, and inability to generate income.
Despite Saylor’s strong optimism for Bitcoin, he emphasizes the importance of responsible investment strategies. He warns investors against quitting their jobs, selling their homes, or incurring debt for the sake of Bitcoin, and suggests gradually allocating Bitcoin based on individual risk tolerance and investment timeline, starting with 1% or 5%, while maintaining a solid personal financial foundation and portfolio diversity.
Experts point out that for Bitcoin to attract more global capital, it must overcome several challenges. These challenges include: power struggles with governments and existing financial systems; price volatility and speculation due to lack of widespread adoption; prevalent misunderstandings and insufficient education; as well as scalability issues (slow transaction speeds, high costs) and environmental concerns stemming from energy consumption. These factors hinder Bitcoin’s potential to become a mainstream currency.
Is Bitcoin the Future King of Currency?
At the Bitcoin 2025 conference held in Las Vegas, Michael Saylor delivered a speech themed “21 Ways to Wealth,” proposing that accumulating Bitcoin is the best path to financial freedom for people of all classes and ages. Saylor’s vision, based on Bitcoin’s decentralization and programmability, believes it will ultimately surpass all other currencies to become the global standard currency.
He strongly advocates the concept of “hyperbitcoinization,” primarily rooted in the declining trust in traditional financial systems, arguing that Bitcoin’s inherent advantages will enable it to swiftly and irreversibly become the world’s main currency. He has even predicted that Bitcoin will soon represent half of global value and grow at a rate of 30% annually, potentially reaching a price of $13 million within 20 years.
While he is extremely bullish on Bitcoin, Saylor also clearly warns against quitting jobs, selling homes, or incurring debt for the sake of Bitcoin. He emphasizes that a responsible investment strategy should balance Bitcoin accumulation with personal financial stability and portfolio diversity. For conservative investors, he suggests starting with a 1% allocation to Bitcoin; for those who can accept long-term investments, he recommends considering 5% or more. Most importantly, asset allocation should be based on individual risk tolerance and investment timeline.
Experts’ Views on “Hyperbitcoinization”: Prediction or Fantasy?
However, experts are divided on whether Saylor’s vision can come to fruition. Emmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at the Real World Assets tokenization platform Brickken, remains optimistic about Bitcoin potentially becoming the “strongest currency,” but he also notes that this is not something that will happen in the short term.
He believes that Bitcoin’s scarcity, decentralized nature, and increasing institutional adoption make it a good hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies, predicting it will become a global store of value asset within 5 to 10 years. However, other experts are less optimistic, viewing “hyperbitcoinization” as more of a fantasy than a prediction.
Philip Blazdell, CEO of blockchain technology company Fedrok AG, points out that unlike traditional assets such as businesses, real estate, or commodities, Bitcoin lacks productivity, has high volatility, and cannot generate income or utility, rendering such scenarios unrealistic. He believes that Saylor’s vision is more rooted in ideological beliefs rather than pragmatic economic considerations.
Barriers to Bitcoin Achieving Global Wealth Absorption
Experts believe that for Bitcoin to become the focal point of global wealth, it must first overcome several hurdles.
Power Struggles and Government Resistance: To achieve global dominance, existing banking systems and government participants must relinquish control over monetary policy, which is highly unlikely. Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget, emphasizes that the biggest obstacle is not technology, but power. For Bitcoin to replace traditional currencies as the dominant global currency, it must face strong opposition from governments and the existing financial system, as it threatens their core power and interests. This is not merely a technical issue, but a deep-rooted political and economic power struggle. Governments will fiercely protect their financial authority through cryptocurrency bans and regulatory crackdowns.
Lack of Widespread Adoption: Despite the increasing number of cryptocurrency holders, Bitcoin’s actual global ownership rate remains relatively low (around 1% to 3%). For Bitcoin to serve as a stable medium of exchange, its price volatility poses a significant barrier to widespread adoption. Its unpredictable fluctuations make it riskier for wealth preservation and unsuitable for pricing goods or services. Until Bitcoin becomes more stable, it remains more of a speculative asset than a daily financial tool.
Misunderstandings and Insufficient Education: Many investors believe that one Bitcoin costs over $100,000, making it suitable only for the wealthy. However, Bitcoin can be divided into very small units (0.00000001 BTC). This notion of “too expensive” hinders retail investors, causing them to turn to lower-priced altcoins, which may actually carry higher risks. Currently, there is still a general lack of education regarding cryptocurrencies/Bitcoin, leading ordinary investors to miss out on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Additionally, managing private keys, understanding wallet options, and securely storing funds require a certain level of technical literacy, all of which hinder Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption.
Scalability and Energy Consumption: Bitcoin’s transactions are “slow and expensive,” which is a major technical barrier. With approximately 7 transactions per second, it falls far short of the vast number of transactions required by the global financial system. For comparison, Visa claims its network can handle over 65,000 transactions per second, although actual figures suggest it processes around 1,700 to 2,000 transactions per second. Regardless of the numbers, they far exceed the transaction processing speeds of current blockchain networks like Bitcoin (around 7 TPS) or Ethereum (around 12-30 TPS). At the same time, Bitcoin mining consumes significant energy, raising environmental concerns and conflicting with growing ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards, which may limit its integration into regulated financial ecosystems. Despite Saylor’s firm belief in Bitcoin’s future, investors should proceed with caution, as Bitcoin’s volatility and regulatory uncertainties make it more suitable for risk-aware investors rather than a universal asset.
Reference: beincrypto, nasdaq