Article Title: Polymarket: A Prediction Platform, Not a Gambling Platform
Introduction:
In recent days, the hottest topic in the cryptocurrency community has been the investigation by Taiwanese authorities into individuals participating in the prediction market platform, Polymarket, regarding the outcome of the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election. These individuals are being investigated for potential gambling offenses.
However, I believe there is a misconception here. Polymarket is a prediction platform that relies on the collective wisdom of its participants to make rational judgments about the value of certain events. It uses the prices of six stocks related to the election (such as the victory or defeat of Lai Ching-te, Hou You-yi, and Ko Wen-je) to reflect the market’s probability of future events.
Summary:
There have been concerns about the legality of participating in a prediction market for the presidential election. The police have questioned 17 “predictors,” but it is important to understand the differences between Polymarket and online gambling platforms.
Here are four key points to highlight the distinctions between Polymarket and online gambling platforms:
1. Motives: Gambling involves a criminal act where the house aims to make customers place incorrect bets and lose money, while the players aim to predict the correct outcome and make the house lose money. However, on Polymarket, all participants have the common goal of predicting outcomes rather than making a profit. For example, in the case of the presidential election, participants buy stocks to contribute to the accuracy of the simulated investment market and achieve a more precise prediction of the election result. This is fundamentally different from gambling.
2. Flexibility: In gambling, once a bet is placed, there is no possibility of changing or canceling it before the outcome is determined. In contrast, Polymarket allows participants to sell their stocks related to future events at any time before the event occurs. This flexibility is an important aspect that distinguishes Polymarket from traditional gambling.
3. Comparison with the Future Events Exchange: Polymarket shares similarities with the Future Events Exchange established by the National Chengchi University, which was cleared of any charges in 2015. Following the principle of “the same event, the same treatment,” the Polymarket community should also avoid prosecution based on this precedent.
4. Involvement of Assets: From a practical standpoint, it is highly unlikely that Polymarket involves any tangible assets. The Central Bank of Taiwan has stated that stablecoins, although claiming to be alternative virtual assets with stable prices, do not possess the core functions of a currency. Therefore, unless Polymarket provides a mechanism for exchanging stablecoins for assets or other properties, it is evident that the element of “gambling assets” required for gambling offenses is not present.
In conclusion, Polymarket’s platform does not possess any exchange functionality, making the participation in the Polymarket prediction community unrelated to the offense of “gambling.” The Taiwanese judicial system has previously made correct judgments regarding the Future Events Exchange. It will be interesting to observe how the judicial system handles the emergence of decentralized future events exchanges in the era of technological advancements.
Note: This article presents various opinions and does not represent the stance of “WEB3+.”
Proofreading Editor: Gao Jingyuan